Palantir has long been one of Wall Street’s most polarizing stocks, soaring on investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and data analytics. But not everyone is convinced the rally is sustainable. 
Andrew Left’s Citron Research has once again taken aim at Palantir, setting what it calls a “generous” price target of just $40 per share – a jaw-dropping 77% below its current price of $173.64.
Left’s case leans heavily on comparisons to OpenAI’s valuation. With OpenAI trading at around a 17x price-to-sales multiple on projected 2026 revenue, Citron argues Palantir should be measured by the same yardstick. Applying that multiple to Palantir’s expected 2026 revenue of $5.6 billion results in a valuation of about $95 billion, translating to $40 per share. In Citron’s view, today’s price represents a disconnect from fundamental reality.
Palantir, however, continues to tout its ambitious growth story. The company operates Gotham for government clients and Foundry for enterprises, alongside its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), designed to integrate large language models and generative AI into real-world workflows. CEO Alex Karp has set bold targets, projecting that the company’s commercial arm – already expected to generate more than $1.3 billion in 2025 – could expand tenfold within five years. Analysts at UBS estimate that would require a staggering 58% compound annual growth rate.
Consensus estimates point to Palantir delivering up to $4.15 billion in revenue in 2025, followed by $5.6 billion in 2026, reflecting healthy year-over-year growth of about 35%. Supporters see these figures as proof of momentum, while critics like Citron view them as insufficient to justify the current market euphoria.
For investors, Citron’s $40 target is less a prediction than a warning – a reminder that Palantir’s valuation may be running far ahead of fundamentals. Whether the stock proves unstoppable or meets the hard wall of reality remains to be seen.