Analyst Says Apple’s Foldable iPhone Hype May Be Setting Up for Disappointment

For years, Apple has been the master of slow innovation – a company that lets others test the waters before stepping in to redefine a market. With rumors swirling about a foldable iPhone slated for late next year, expectations have already reached a fever pitch. Yet, one prominent Wall Street analyst is urging everyone to calm down.

Jefferies’ Edison Lee believes Apple’s first foldable device might not live up to the outsized hopes fans and investors have pinned on it.

According to Lee’s latest note, Apple’s fiscal forecasts paint an interesting picture. He’s raised his iPhone sales estimates for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 but has lowered his projection for 2027. The reason? He expects a softer market for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and especially for the upcoming foldable iPhone, which he predicts will sell just 12.5 million units. That figure contrasts sharply with earlier reports – like one from Nikkei Asia – claiming Apple aims for as many as 95 million foldable units. The gap between the hype and realistic expectations, Lee suggests, is enormous.

In the near term, Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup remains a bright spot. The base model, in particular, has seen an implied price cut of $100 – achieved not by lowering the sticker price but by doubling the base storage from 128 GB to 256 GB while keeping the same retail cost. This clever maneuver has already spurred higher demand, which Lee believes is largely reflected in current stock valuations. “Better demand for iPhone 17, partly due to a price cut on the base model, is already in the price,” he noted, cautioning investors not to assume that momentum will carry forward into the foldable era.

In other words, the iPhone 17’s success might be a temporary high before a plateau. Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2024, with projections of 248 million in 2025, 250 million in 2026, and a slight dip to 248 million again in 2027. Lee’s revised estimates – 7% growth in 2025, just 1% in 2026, and a 1% decline in 2027 – underscore his belief that even Apple can’t defy gravity forever. The upcoming $100 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, while good for margins, might dampen enthusiasm among buyers already facing premium fatigue.

The larger question is whether consumers even want a foldable iPhone. Apple’s loyal user base is known for valuing polish and durability over gimmicks, and many are skeptical of the folding trend pioneered by Samsung and others. Some potential buyers appreciate thinner, lighter designs, but others see foldables as impractical – bulky, fragile, and unnecessary. Apple, for its part, seems in no rush to join the fray, likely waiting for materials and hinge technology to mature enough to meet its famously strict standards.

Still, the mere idea of a foldable iPhone stirs imagination. Could Apple’s version finally solve the problems that have plagued early models – from visible creases to short battery life? Or will the company’s cautious approach result in a device that feels more like an expensive experiment than a mainstream hit? For now, all signs point to Apple testing the market carefully rather than betting the house on a design revolution.

Those eager for clues should keep an eye on the supply chain. If component leaks suggest larger display orders or hinge parts entering production, that could hint at Apple’s pace. The next few quarters will reveal whether Lee’s tempered outlook proves correct – or if Apple, once again, finds a way to turn restraint into dominance.