iPhone Shipments Fuel Modest Smartphone Market Growth in 2025

The global smartphone market is finally seeing signs of recovery, and according to IDC, much of that momentum is riding on Apple’s shoulders. Shipments are projected to grow by 1% in 2025 compared to last year, reaching 1.24 billion units.

While modest, this improvement over the earlier 0.6% forecast comes almost entirely from stronger iPhone demand – shipments of Apple’s flagship devices are expected to climb 3.9% year-on-year.

Growth is uneven across regions. The U.S. market is forecast to expand by 3.6%, while the Middle East and Africa could see a remarkable 6.5% increase. Asia Pacific (excluding China) will grow by 0.8%, helping to balance out the expected 1% decline in China, where the removal of subsidies has weighed heavily on demand. Interestingly, Chinese consumers still place Apple and Huawei at the top of the premium bracket, with the upcoming iPhone 17 Pro Max drawing plenty of attention.

IDC predicts that replacement cycles and the push toward premium devices will continue fueling demand through 2026 and beyond, though at slower rates – 1.2% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, before tapering down again in 2028 and 2029. Average selling prices are expected to rise 5% this year, pushing overall market revenue up by 6%.

Another key trend is the rise of so-called “GenAI smartphones,” which IDC defines as devices preloaded with generative AI features. More than 370 million of these handsets are expected to ship in 2025, grabbing nearly 30% market share. Foldable devices are also part of the story, with shipments expected to rise 6% this year, and momentum building once Apple inevitably joins the foldable race – likely sparking stronger growth from 2027 onward. Even so, foldables will remain niche, accounting for less than 3% of total shipments by 2029.

The reality is that Apple continues to dominate the conversation. For some, this reflects the brand’s ability to set industry trends regardless of hardware limitations like missing large batteries, high zoom cameras, or even the long-lost headphone jack. For others, it’s a sign that the market has become over-reliant on Apple’s cycle of yearly releases, even as many consumers complain about incremental upgrades. Still, for now, the iPhone remains the engine pulling the smartphone industry forward.