Citron Research Reaffirms $40 Palantir Target Using Databricks Comparison

Citron Research is once again tightening its grip on Palantir, tripling down on a $40 per share target that has become its signature bearish call.

Andrew Left, the well-known short seller behind Citron, insists the stock is heavily overvalued and has used comparisons with Databricks to reinforce his case.

Speaking recently on Fox Business, Left revealed he not only remains short on Palantir but also increased his bet following the company’s latest quarterly report. He described his bearish thesis as “obvious,” citing what he sees as fundamental mismatches between hype and value.

Left’s math leans heavily on valuation multiples. Using OpenAI’s projected $500 billion valuation on nearly $30 billion in sales, Citron applied a 17x price-to-sales ratio to Palantir’s 2026 consensus revenue of $5.6 billion. That translates to a valuation of around $95 billion – or roughly $40 per share.

To hammer home the point, Citron compared Palantir directly with Databricks. Both companies have similar annual revenues and gross margins, though Databricks has stronger revenue retention. When Databricks’ $100 billion valuation is used as a yardstick, Palantir again lands at the $40 target.

The timing of Citron’s renewed attack is notable. Palantir shares have already shed 16% in the past five trading sessions, sliding further in pre-market trading. Broader investor confidence in AI narratives has also taken a hit, especially after an MIT report revealed that 95% of generative AI projects fail to deliver any real return on investment. Against this backdrop, Citron’s persistent call seems less like provocation and more like a calculated reminder of market reality.